Personal Page of DM3MAT

Sporadic-E (Es) "Prediction" for JO62

This page presents the (almost) live "prediction" of the current Sporadic-E events on the 10m and 6m bands in Europe. This prediction is based on live WSPR spots on the 10m and 6m bands. The prediction algorithm tries to estimate a lower-bound for the critical frequency over Europe derived from the WSPR spots. A simple solar-tidal wind-model is used for the time evolution. This model is not able to predict the occurence of Es events in advance!

10m Band - Europe (1)

6m Band - Europe (1)

(1) Lower-bound (alpha=0.1) estimate of the probability to reach a certain point in Europe from JO62th. The figures can be read as "With 90% certainty, a point in Europe can be reached with a probability of ≥ P (color coded)." Without any observations, the model returns a flat probability distribution. In this case, the lower-bound estimate of the probability P will be 10%. Negative spots will reduce P below 10% and positive spots above 10%.